On Friday 24th April at 10.00 a.m. CET sees the release of German Ifo Business Climate which should give a further indication of the state of the German (and Eurozone) economy after generally poor PMI data from Europe (and globally) on Thursday. Eurogroup Meetings remain at the fore, however, with the Greek debt situation obviously critical. Despite an erratic EURUSD tone through April, recent gains have eased bearish risks.
EURUSD Bearish Risks Eased
A far more aggressive rally with a Bullish Outside pattern Thursday to reject the Wednesday Gravestone Doji to push through notable resistance in the 1.0840/48 area.
This signals a positive tone for Friday, through whilst capped by 1.1053 we see bearish pressures for late April and into May.
- We see an upside bias for 1.0888; break here aims for 1.0925, maybe 1.0955.
- But below 1.0786 opens risk down to 1.0731, which we would look to try to hold. Below sees strong support at 1.0665/58.
Short-/Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Into May we see bias for a further for a retest of the March 1.0459 March cycle low.
- As we have stated since last year, for 2015 (Q2?), the threat is to PARITY and just below here, .9900, the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 bull rally.
- Overshoot risk for Q2 is now lower to the .9609 swing low from 2002.
What Changes This? Through 1.1053 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.1249.
2 Hour EURUSD Chart
Daily EURUSD Chart