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GBPUSD Bear Theme, EURUSD Erratic

gbpusd

  • When we last reported on GBPUSD and EURUSD here on 21st June, we underscored the ongoing GBPUSD intermediate-term bear trend and the erratic range theme for EURUSD.
  • The GBPUSD Forex rate has seen a renewal of negative pressures, re-energizing the intermediate-term bear trend with a move to a new cycle low, leaving risks for lower price action in July.
  • The EURUSD currency rate, remains within an erratic, intermediate-term, broader range, defined by 1.1851 to 1.1509/07. We still see a skewed bias for a break lower.

GBPUSD Bear theme intact

A better rebound effort than expected on Friday above 1.3167 resistance, but contained below a better barrier area at 1.3225/30, sustaining downside pressures from the Wednesday-Thursday selloff through the recently set cycle ow at 1.3101/00 and to hit a 1.3069 target, keeping risk back lower Monday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 13100 and 1.3049; break here aims for key supports in the 1.3040/27 area, even towards 1.3000 and 1.2967.
  • But above 1.3225/30 opens risk up to 1.3292, maybe 1.3315.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3040/27 and 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2773 and 1.2587.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3473 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

1.3225/30* 1.3292 1.3315* 1.3350 1.3391
1.3100 1.3049* 1.3040/27*** 1.3000** 1.2967

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

 

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EURUSD Rebound in a range

A firm rebound effort Thursday- Friday from just above key 1.1509/07 supports, through resistances at 1.1612 and 1.1672, rejecting negative forces from last week’s plunge through various supports, keeping the bias higher for Monday.

We see an intermediate-term range, 1.1996 to 1.1507, BUT with risk now or for a bearish shift below 1.1507.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1690; break here aims for 1.1720 and 1.1744, maybe 1.1789.
  • But below 1.1612 opens risk down to 1.1560 and maybe 1.1526.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1851 to 1.1507.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1851 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1507 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.

Resistance and Support:

1.1690 1.1720** 1.1744 1.1789 1.1851***
1.1612* 1.1560 1.1526* 1.1509/07*** 1.1479*

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

 

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