GBPUSD Bear Trend Intact into the Bank of England; EURUSD Bear Threat


  • Back in our report on 11th June, we highlighted the neutralising of the EURUSD intermediate-term bear trend and that the equivalent GBPUSD bear trend was under threat.
  • However, renewed negative pressures have seen the intermediate-term bear trend for the GBPUSD Forex rate extend below latter May cycle low, to sustain the threat to the downside into today’s Bank of England Meeting (and beyond).
  • For the EURUSD currency rate, the previous neutralising of the intermediate-term bear trend established a broader range, defined by 1.1996 to 1.1509, BUT with risk now skewed to the downside and for a push through 1.1509 for a negative trading and trending signal, to shift back to an intermediate-term bear theme.

GBPUSD Deeper downside extension threat into BoE

A modest rebound Wednesday but contained below initial resistance at 1.3228 (at 1.217), to sustain the bear tone from Tuesday’s plunge through the cycle low at 1.3203, PLUS the short-term bearish theme since last Thursday’s bearish outside pattern plunge, keeping risks lower for Thursday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3149; break here aims quickly for 1.3132 and 1.3100, maybe towards targets at 3040/27.
  • But above 1.3217/28 aims at 1.3273 and maybe 1.3298.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3040/27 and 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2773 and 1.2587.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3618 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish back to neutral, but only to bullish above 1.3998.

Resistance and Support:

1.3217/28 1.3273* 1.3298** 1.3350 1.3391
1.3149 1.3132 1.3100 1.3069 1.3040/27***

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart



EURUSD Downside threat intact

A negative consolidation tone Wednesday after Tuesday’s setback from below our 1.1685 resistance level (from 1.1645), further rejecting the lacklustre Friday-Monday rebound effort and reinforcing bear pressures from last Thursday’s aggressive bearish outside pattern, leaving risks lower Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range, 1.1996 to 1.1509.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1529; break here aims for the key cycle low at 1.1509, then 1.1479 and 1.1435.
  • But above 1.1607 targets 1.1645 and aims for 1.1685, maybe towards 1.1744.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1996 to 1.1509.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1996 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1509 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.

Resistance and Support:

1.1607 1.1645** 1.1685* 1.1744 1.1789
1.1529 1.1509*** 1.1479* 1.1435 1.1392

4 Hour EURUSD Chart


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