GBPUSD Bear Trend Intact into the Bank of England; EURUSD Bear Threat


  • Back in our report on 11th June, we highlighted the neutralising of the EURUSD intermediate-term bear trend and that the equivalent GBPUSD bear trend was under threat.
  • However, renewed negative pressures have seen the intermediate-term bear trend for the GBPUSD Forex rate extend below latter May cycle low, to sustain the threat to the downside into today’s Bank of England Meeting (and beyond).
  • For the EURUSD currency rate, the previous neutralising of the intermediate-term bear trend established a broader range, defined by 1.1996 to 1.1509, BUT with risk now skewed to the downside and for a push through 1.1509 for a negative trading and trending signal, to shift back to an intermediate-term bear theme.

GBPUSD Deeper downside extension threat into BoE

A modest rebound Wednesday but contained below initial resistance at 1.3228 (at 1.217), to sustain the bear tone from Tuesday’s plunge through the cycle low at 1.3203, PLUS the short-term bearish theme since last Thursday’s bearish outside pattern plunge, keeping risks lower for Thursday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3149; break here aims quickly for 1.3132 and 1.3100, maybe towards targets at 3040/27.
  • But above 1.3217/28 aims at 1.3273 and maybe 1.3298.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3040/27 and 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2773 and 1.2587.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3618 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish back to neutral, but only to bullish above 1.3998.

Resistance and Support:

1.3217/28 1.3273* 1.3298** 1.3350 1.3391
1.3149 1.3132 1.3100 1.3069 1.3040/27***

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart



EURUSD Downside threat intact

A negative consolidation tone Wednesday after Tuesday’s setback from below our 1.1685 resistance level (from 1.1645), further rejecting the lacklustre Friday-Monday rebound effort and reinforcing bear pressures from last Thursday’s aggressive bearish outside pattern, leaving risks lower Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range, 1.1996 to 1.1509.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1529; break here aims for the key cycle low at 1.1509, then 1.1479 and 1.1435.
  • But above 1.1607 targets 1.1645 and aims for 1.1685, maybe towards 1.1744.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1996 to 1.1509.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1996 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1509 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.

Resistance and Support:

1.1607 1.1645** 1.1685* 1.1744 1.1789
1.1529 1.1509*** 1.1479* 1.1435 1.1392

4 Hour EURUSD Chart


Are you ready to trade?

Sign up with eToro Logo76% of CFD traders lose

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.