- We last looked at GBPUSD and EURUSD here on 3rd September and since then (and as we had expected) GBPUSD has rallied to neutralize its intermediate-term bear trend, and is now in an intermediate-term range environment
- Furthermore, and as anticipated, EURUSD has maintained its broader range theme.
- For the GBPUSD currency rate, the intermediate-term trend only shifts bullish above 1.3213, whilst an EURUSD push through 1.1791 is needed for a bullish switch.
GBPUSD Downside correction bias
A push still higher Tuesday to initially build on Monday’s surge higher above key 1.3043 resistance, BUT then a significant intraday setback through 1.3005 support to signal a potential failure and shift risks lower for Wednesday.
The early September probe above key 1.3043 resistances neutralised the intermediate-term bear theme, for an intermediate-term range seen as 1.2784 to 1.3213, with risks skewed towards a bullish break.
- We see a downside bias for 1.2962; break here aims for 1.2919, maybe 1.2895/94.
- But above 1.3051 opens risk up to 1.3087 and 1.3126, maybe towards 1.3173.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2784 to 1.3213.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.3213 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3363, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.2784 sees a bear trend to target 1.2661, 1.2589, 1.2366, maybe towards 1.2109.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
EURUSD Negative tone whilst below 1.1659
A rebound failure Tuesday down from below the peak at 1.1650, sustaining negative forces from the setback from late August, to leave the immediate bias lower for Wednesday.
The latter August push above 1.1628 neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend and set an intermediate-term range theme, seen as 1.1791 to 1.1300 (with risks skewed towards a bullish break above 1.1791).
- We see a downside bias for 1.1525; break here aims for 1.1464, maybe towards 1.1393.
- But above 1.1659 opens risk up to 1.1690 and 1.1733.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1791 to 1.1300.
- Upside Risks: Above 1791 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
- Downside Risks: Below 1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1134, 1.1000 and 1.0839.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart