GBPUSD Bearish into Bank of England; EURUSD Negative in a Range

GBPUSD Chart 2018-08-02

  • We last looked at GBPUSD and EURUSD here on 23rd July and discussed ongoing intermediate-term bearish risk for GBPUSD, and a range theme for EURUSD.
  • GBPUSD has seen a setback after a recent recovery effort in latter July and this bullish rebound failure has underscored the ongoing intermediate-term bear theme and leaves a downside threat into today’s Bank of England Meeting (where a rate hike is expected).
  • The EURUSD remains trapped within an intermediate-term range, that we see defined as 1.1851 to 1.1509/07, BUT with risks shifting back to the downside, since the latte July failures back from resistances clustered between 1.1751 and 1.1791.


Still a bear bias

A negative consolidation on Wednesday to reinforce the selloff earlier this week from 1.3172, thereby sustaining negative forces from last week’s failure down through the up trend line from mid-July AND from the mid-July push to a new cycle low at 1/2956), keeping risks lower Thursday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3070; break here aims for 1.3000/1.2995.
  • But above 1.3173 opens risk up to 1.3213, maybe towards 1.3241.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2773,1.2587, 1.2363, maybe towards 1.2107.

  • What Changes This? Above 1.3473 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

1.3173 1.3213* 1.3241 1.3293/3301** 1.3363*
1.3070* 1.3000/1.2995 1.2956** 1.2911 1.2877

4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD Chart 2018-08-02


Bias stays lower

A prod lower Wednesday to reinforce Tuesday’s rebound failure from just below the notable 1.1751/60 resistance area, resuming negative pressures from the latter July setbacks from this same region, leaving risks for a further push lower Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range, 1.1851 to 1.1507.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through 1.1646 for 1.1619; break here aims towards 1.1574/60.
  • But above 1.1717 aims for 1.1751/60 and maybe targets 1.1791.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1851 to 1.1507.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1851 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1507 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.

Resistance and Support:

1.1717 1.1751/60** 1.1791** 1.1851*** 1.1903
1.1646 1.1619* 1.1574/60 1.1526* 1.1509/07***

4 Hour Chart

EURUSD Chart 2018-08-02

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