GBPUSD Bull Threat, But a Negative EURUSD Tone

gbpusd chart

  • GBPUSD, has shifted to a more positive tone through November, initially due to a weakening of the US$, but into late November a more bullish tone has surfaced for the GB Pound, with Brexit negotiations apparently progressing.
  • This sets GBPUSD upside risks for a challenge to the top of our intermediate-term range at 1.3658, above which would see a more bullish shift.
  • For EURUSD, the November rebound effort neutralised the intermediate-term bearish theme (with a push above 1.1880).
  • This leaves EURUSD in a broader range theme, but with a very short-term negative bias (as UD$ strength resurfaces into late November and going into early December).

Read all current forex forecasts

GBPUSD Positive theme

A more solid advance Wednesday up through 1.3388, 1.3402 and this morning 1.3464 resistances, reinforcing Tuesday’s erratic, but strong turnaround rally and upside pressures from last Friday’s advance through key 1.3338 resistance, keeping the bias higher for Thursday.

For Today:

  • We see a positive bias for 1.3480; above quickly targets 1.3515 and 1.3596.
  • But below 1.3406 targets 1.3351 and maybe 1.3290.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3026 and 1.3658.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
  • Downside: Below 1.3026 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.

Resistance and Support:

1.3480 1.3515 1.3596** 1.3658*** 1.3705
1.3406 1.3351* 1.3290 1.3220** 1.3181*

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

 gbpusd chart

EURUSD Negative tone

An erratic consolidation Wednesday below initial resistance at 1.1901 and to probe below 1.1826 support, leaving negative forces from Tuesday’s setback through 1.1895 and 1.1835 supports, keeping risks lower for Thursday.

The latter November push through 1.1880 produced an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral” for a broader range theme for late November and into December.

For Today:

  • We see a negative bias to target 1.1816, maybe towards 1.1760, maybe towards 1.1712.
  • But above 1.1901 aims at 1.1961.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2089 and 1.1553.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.2089 aims higher for 1.2173, 1.2272 and 1.2600.
  • Downside: Below 1.1553 sees risk lower for 1.1311 and 1.1107.

Resistance and Support:

1.1901 1.1961* 1.2005** 1.2034* 1.2089***
1.1816 1.1760 1.1712** 1.1660** 1.1621

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

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