GBPUSD and EURUSD Correct Lower, but Intermediate-Term Bull Themes Intact

gbpusd chart

  • A positive US$ tone has appeared over the past week through the turn of month from January into early February.
  • This has been encouraged by a move to multi-year yield highs across the US yield curve, coupled with a risk off environment triggered by US and global equity downside corrections.
  • Although both EURUSD and GBPUSD have dipped lower, we still the intermediate-term threat into February for a renewal of bullish pressures and upside challenges.

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GBPUSD Bullish trend intact, despite setback

A notable setback on Friday through supports at 1.4189 and 1.4134,  to ease bullish pressures from the Tuesday-Thursday rebound, but whilst holding above 1.4060 we see a rebound bias Monday.

The prior break above 1.3549 shifted the intermediate-term outlook from neutral to bullish and sees upside risks for January.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias back to and through 1.4228; break here quickly aims for the 1.4278/87 area.
  • But below 1.4189 targets 1.4134 and opens risk down to 1.4060.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat back up to target 1.4465 and 1.4600.

What Changes This? Below 1.3730 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.3456.

Resistance and Support:

1.4228 1.4278/87* 1.4346** 1.4377 1.4421
1.4060 1.3979/63** 1.3915** 1.3838 1.3804*

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

EURUSD Bullish bias intact

A setback Friday to probe just minor support at 1.2430, but whilst still holding above the 1.2384/82 area, we still see upside forces from Thursday’s push above 1.2475 and 1.2494 resistances (from 1.2384/82 support), keeping the bias back to the upside for Monday.

The end of 2017 push through 1.1961 saw an intermediate-term bullish shift to set an upside bias for January.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2523; break here aims quickly or the cycle high at 1.2538, and to 1.2547, even maybe towards 1.2600
  • But below 1.2408 targets 1.2384/82 and maybe opens risk down to 1.2334.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above 1.2159, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat up to 1.2600, maybe towards 1.3000.

What Changes This? Below 1.2159 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.1914.

Resistance and Support:

1.2523 1.2538* 1.2547 1.2600** 1.2633
1.2408 1.2384/82** 1.2334* 1.2301* 1.2269

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.