GBPUSD and EURUSD Set for More Negative Shifts

gbpusd chart

  • A continuing strengthening of the USD after the September US Employment report published on Friday 6th October, even though the NFP element of the report was far lower than the already low forecasts in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
  • Furthermore, political concerns in the UK have put downside pressures on the Pound, which when combined with the strengthening of the US Dollar has allowed for a GBPUSD push through key support at 1.3147, threatening a critical level at 1.2903.
  • For EURUSD, concerns regarding the situation in Catalan, had threatened the key level at 1.1661, through which would indicate a more negative tone for October.

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GBPUSD – Downside threat

Another push lower on Friday through support at 1.3072 and 1.3060 maintains the very short-term negative theme evident from mid-September into Monday.

Furthermore, the early October push through 1.3147 has neutralised the intermediate term bullish theme, BUT risk is now growing for a challenge to 1.2903, which would see an intermediate-term bear shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias down through 1.3026; break here aims quickly for 1.3017, possibly 1.2951 and even key 1.2903.
  • But above 1.3142 opens risk up towards 1.3195.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2903 and 1.3658.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
  • Downside: Below 1.2903 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

EURUSD – Bearish threat

A push down to approach important support at 1.1684 and despite the rebound from just above here on Friday, whilst contained below important resistance at 1.1832 and even a minor level 1.1788, we see risk lower again for Monday.

The threat is for a challenge to 1.1661, below which was seen intermediate-term shift of bearish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias to challenge the key level at 1.1661; a break here would target 1.1648 and 1.1603.
  • But above 1.1788 opens risk up to 1.1832, maybe 1.1862

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1661 and 1.2089.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.2089 aims higher for 1.2173, maybe closer to 1.2600/02.
  • Downside: Below 1.1661 sees risk lower for 1.1479 and 1.1311.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart


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