NZDUSD Bullish Shift and AUDUSD Bullish Threat

nzdusd chart

  • The US$ is generally weaker across major currencies in April, with a shift back towards more of a “risk on” scenario” with the Yen also weakening alongside US Treasuries.
  • For NZDUSD, the push above key .7355 resistance has reflected this shift to a “risk on” bias, signalling an intermediate-term range breakout for a bullish intermediate-term theme.
  • The late March AUDUSD surrender of .7710 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, but the April recovery above .7785 has set a neutral theme, with risk skewed for of a bullish intermediate-term shift above .7916.


See all technical analyses and forex forecasts

NZDUSD Upside forces intact

A Friday rally and setback for a bearish outside daily pattern, and a likely dip on the open this week, but whilst above .7301 we still see the bull theme from early April, aiming higher again Monday.

The April push above .7355 signalled a breakout from an intermediate-term range to a bullish intermediate-term view.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7395; break here aims for .7411, then the cycle peaks at .7437.
  • But below .7301 opens risk down to .7268, maybe .7239.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .7437.

  • Higher targets would be 7558 and .7744.
  • What Changes This? Below .7151 shifts intermediate-term straight from bullish to bearish.

Resistance and Support:

.7395 .7411* .7437*** .7455* .7473
.7342* .7301 .7268 .7239** .7184*

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart


AUDUSD Intermediate-term bear trend neutralised above .7785

We have stressed in recent reports that, “we see an intermediate-term bearish trend, BUT risks is growing for a shift back to a neutral range theme” and we now see a range defined as .7640 and .7916, with bias for a bullish shift above .7916.

Despite an intraday setback Friday and a dip lower expected to start the week, the push above .7785 sets risks higher for Monday, whilst above .7715.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7810, then .7848.
  • But below .7715 opens risk down to .7649/40 and .7635.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7640 and .7916.

  • Upside Risks: Above .7916 sets a bull trend to aim for .8000 and .8138.
  • Downside Risks: Below .7640 sees a bear trend to target .7500, .7368/31 and .7155/41.

Resistance and Support:

.7810 .7848*** .7916*** .7951* .7989**
.7715 .7687 .7649/40/35** .7599 .7550/43*

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 audusd chart

Are you ready to trade?

Sign up with eToro Logo76% of CFD traders lose

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.