NZDUSD Risk of a Bearish Shift

Technical Analysis

The erratic Wednesday setback has neutralized and dismissed the bullish outside Tuesday pattern and rejected our view of a better recovery phase.

Moreover, this activity has reinforced the April Double Top and leaves risk to key .7422.

A break here would again neutralize the Q1 Double Bottom and signal a shift to a broader range theme, but likely with a negative bias.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7455; break here aims for .7436 and .7422, which should try to hold.
  • But above .7551 opens risk up to .7577, maybe to .7600, which we would look to try to cap.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Bigger picture, only whilst above .7422, leaves a positive tone with the bullish threat back to the .7744 peak and then to .7851.
  • Above here targets .7890 and maybe .7975/77.

What Changes This? Below .7422 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting negative below .7391.

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