USDCAD and USDJPY Bullish Threats Eased

US Dollar weakness has resurfaced since the FOMC March Meeting on Wednesday, with this activity neutralising much of the positive US$ activity from late February (driven by anticipation of a more hawkish Fed). Read more forex market analyses here.

For USDCAD, this has now rejected the threat of a more bullish shift, only signalled through 1.3598, pointing to a negative consolidation theme into the second part of March.

For USDJPY, again the risk of a more bullish tone above 115.83 has for now been precluded, leaving a more negative bias in the near term.


An unexpected rebound on Friday, but we view this as very short-term corrective in nature, leaving bearish pressures from the Wednesday plunge after the Fed, keeping risk lower for Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3272; break here aims for 1.3229, maybe 1.3160.
  • But above 1.3378 opens risk up towards 1.3465.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3598 and 1.2965.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3598 aims higher for 1.3837/59 and 1.4000/17.
  • Downside: Below 1.2965 sees risk lower for 1.2759 and 1.2457.

Daily USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart


Another push lower on Friday down through supports at 112.88 and 112.73, sustaining the post-FOMC sell-off through notable support at 113.53/44, maintaining the downside bias for Monday.

Furthermore, the intermediate-term risk within the range environment has shifted from a bullish shift above 115.63, to threat of a bearish shift below 111.32.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 112.52; break here aims for 112.00, maybe to the 111.66/58 area.
  • But above 113.21 opens risk up to 113.56, maybe 114.00.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 111.32 and 115.63.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Downside: Below 111.32 sees risk lower for 110.00/109.76 and 108.51.
  • Upside: Above 115.63 aims higher for 118.65, 120.00/10 and 121.69.

Daily USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart

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