USDCAD Still Bearish with USDJPY Caught in a Range

USDCAD Chart 2019-02-28

  • We last reviewed the USDCAD and USDJPY Forex rate here on 18th February with a bearish theme for USDCAD and neutral tone for USDJPY and theme viewed remain unchanged
  • The USDCAD currency pair has faltered on rebound efforts through the second half of February, which reinforces the intermediate-term bear trend, previously signalled in January below 1.3157 and intact whilst contained by 1.3375.
  • The USDJPY FX retains a slight upside bias within a short-term consolidation environment and within an intermediate-term range the risk remains skewed towards a bullish breakout, needing however, a push above 111.41.


Bear theme intact

A prod lower Wednesday through minor 1.3151 support to reinforce the Tuesday’s rebound failure back from below 1.3243 resistance (from 1.3236), sustaining negative forces from the prior selloff through 1 the February up trendline, to keep risks lower for Thursday.

The late January plunge below 1.3157 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, BUT risk is growing for a shift to neutral above 1.3375.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3114/10; break here aims for key 1.3064 and maybe towards 1.3052/44.
  • But above 1.3236/43 opens risk up to 1.3281/95 and maybe 1.3340.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2912 and 1.2784.
  • What Changes This? Above 13375 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3177 1.3236/43** 1.3281/95* 1.3340** 1.3375***
1.3114/10* 1.3064** 1.3052/44* 1.3022/11* 1.3000*

4 Hour Chart

USDCAD Chart 2019-02-28


Rebound bias

A Wednesday setback but holding just above 110.23 support and rebounding from 110.32, to sustain a positive bias to the current sideways consolidation phase, assisted by the recent probe to a new 2019 peak just above 111.13 to 111.23, to keep risks higher into Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range as 111.41 to 108.47, BUT growing risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 111.41.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.23; break here quickly aims for key 111.41, maybe towards 111.97.
  • But below 110.32/23 quickly opens risk down towards 109.93 and maybe 109.66, which we would look to try to hold.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.41 to 108.47.

  • Upside Risks: Above 111.41 sets a bull trend to aim for 71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 108.47 sees a bear trend to target 107.74, 72/55 and 104.78/56.

Resistance and Support:

111.23 111.41*** 111.97 112.64* 113.11/18
110.32/23* 109.93 109.66* 109.40* 108.85*

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY Chart 2019-02-28

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