USDCAD and USDJPY Indecision

daily usdjpy chart


An erratic tone Friday through the US and Canadian Employment reports, but the dip and the rebound has rejected a negative tone and reinforces the upside risks into Monday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3455/65; break here aims for 1.2500 and maybe towards 1.3535.
  • But below 1.3378 opens risk down to 1.3338/17 area.

Short/ Intermediate

-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3598 and 1.2965.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3598 aims higher for 1.3837/59 and 1.4000/17.
  • Downside: Below 1.2965 sees risk lower for 1.2759 and 1.2457.

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

4 hour usdcad chart


Yet another erratic consolidation Friday before and after the US Employment report (as seen since late March), leaving a neutral tone into Monday (with a slight upside bias).

But, the late March plunge through 111.32 maintains the intermediate-term bearish outlook.

For Today: We see a neutral tone between 111.47/59 and 110.09/08 (with a slight positive bias).

  • Break above 111.47/59 aims for 111.94, maybe up to 112.20, which we would look to try to cap.
  • Break below 110.09/08 area aims for 110.00, 109.76, possibly 109.48.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat through 110.00/109.76.
  • Below here targets 108.51 and 105.99.

What Changes This? Above 115.50/63 signals a straight shift from bearish to bullish.

Daily USDJPY Chart

daily usdjpy chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.