AUDUSD Bull Trend Neutralised; NZDUSD Bull Trend Also at Risk
The AUDUSD and NZDUSD spot rates have suffered significant erosion (losses) in early September, with the break lower by AUDUSD having a particularly negative impact.
AUDUSD losses through .7484 support signalled an intermediate-term trend reversal and neutralized the bull tone that was previously evident, leaving a neutral consolidation tone into September.
For NZDUSD, the risk is for a similar technical signal, requiring a break below .7200.
Despite a hesitant rebound effort Wednesday to probe modest resistance at .7487, a setback from just above here (from .7496) leaves negative pressures from the Tuesday breakdown through key .7489/86/84 support to keep a bear bias again for Thursday
In addition, the plunge below this support area (.7489/86/84), also produced a shift in the intermediate-term view from bullish to neutral.
For Thursday/ Friday:
- We see a downside bias for .7438; break here aims for .7417 and maybe next critical level at .7403!
- But above .7496 opens risk up to .7540 and maybe .7568/80.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .7760.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7760 aims higher for .7835/50/78, .8000 and .8164/66.
- Downside: Below .7403 sees risk lower for .7284 and .7141.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
Despite a Wednesday bounce effort to push above modest resistance at .7288, a setback from just above here (from .7313) leaves negative pressures from the Tuesday sell off through .7286 and .7265 supports, to keep a negative tone again into Thursday.
Mounting risk is still for an intermediate-term shift from bullish to neutral, signalled by a break below .7200.
For Thursday/ Friday:
- We see a downside bias for .7231/23; break here aims for key .7200, then maybe .7163.
- But above .7313 opens risk up to .7364, maybe .7382.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7396/7413.
- Above here targets .7516/64 and .7744.
What Changes This? Below .7200 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7084.
Daily NZDUSD Chart