AUDUSD remains confined within an intermediate-term range environment, but the strong rally over the past week has shifted the risk for a more bullish tone, but still only signalled on a break above .7760.
For NZDUSD, despite the recent rebound effort, the early October Head and Shoulders top in structure leaves a bigger bearish threat for latter October.
A strong upside follow-through on, having held above minor support at .7620, maintaining upside pressures from the rally from last week to push above resistance at .7710, to keep the bias to the upside into Thursday.
- We see an upside bias for .7732; break here aims for .7749, maybe even to the key points 7760 level.
- But below .7685 opens risk down to .7654, may be as deep as .7620.
The early September plunge below the .7489/86/84 support area produced a shift in the intermediate-term view from bullish to neutral.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .7760.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7760 aims higher for .7835/50/78, .8000 and .8164/66.
- Downside: Below .7403 sees risk lower for .7284 and .7141.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
A further extension Wednesday through resistance at .7200/10, to reinforce the mini-base and rebound from last Friday, to keep the bias to the upside into Thursday.
However, the previous Head and Shoulders pattern that saw a push down through .7084, maintains an intermediate-term bearish theme into the second half of October.
- We see an upside bias for .7249; break here aims for .7261, maybe as high as .7311.
- But below .7184 opens risk down to .7156, maybe even as deep as .7123.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6948.
- Below here targets .6800 and .6676/64.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
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