- Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars reinforced their intermediate-term bullish outlooks versus the US Dollar in late July, extending up trends from Q2.
- Although the start of August has seen consolidation activity for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD, even minor support levels are intact, leaving risk higher into early/mid-August.
- The risk remains for significant moves higher for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD through the summer and potentially into September.
AUDUSD – Bullish trend reinforced
A positive consolidation Wednesday above support at .7934, after a Tuesday push above .8007 resistance, leaving threat for renewed gains into Thursday.
Furthermore, the robust July recovery activity through the psychological/option target at .8000 has reinforced the intermediate term bullish outlook.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias back up to .8043 closer to .8065, Maybe up 2.8105.
l But below .7934 opens risk down to the .7876/74 area, which we would look to try to hold.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to the 2015 high at .8164.
l Above here targets .8295 and the .8452/82 area.
What Changes This? Below .7784 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7568.
Daily Chart
NZDUSD – Upside bias
A more negative consolidation Wednesday probing down through minor support at .7423, but a rebound from ahead of next support at .7399 sustains upside pressures from the latter July surge up through the September 2016 cycle high at .7485 and psychological/option target .7500, leaving risk higher for Thursday.
Furthermore, the push through .7485 reinforces the intermediate-term bullish outlook into August.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias back up to .7496; Through here target .7558
l But below .7399 opens risk down to .7330.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat through .7485.
l Above here targets .7744 and .8000/45 area.
What Changes This? Below .7198 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7003.
Daily Chart
