Euro and GB Pound Stay Bearish (vs. US$)

Technical Analysis

Attempted rebounds by the Euro and GB Pound against the US Dollar since the forceful sell offs in the wake of the Thursday June 23rd Referendum in the UK July, have been lacklustre at best.

The failure by EURUSD or GBPUSD to overcome any significant resistances keeps the bearish intermediate themes for these spot rates bearish for late July and into August.
Moreover, the EURUSD and GBPUSD breakdowns since late June maintain bigger picture bearish threats.

Once again another setback Friday below 1.1000, 1.0978 and 1.0970 supports after the mid-July rebounds were rejected back from 1.1100, 1.1084 and 1.1060 resistances, to leave the bias back lower for Monday.
Furthermore, the aggressive plunge lower on Friday 24th June (after the UK Referendum result) leaves the intermediate-term bias lower.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
•    We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.0823/21.
•    Below here targets 1.0777/08 and maybe 1.0520.
What Changes This? Above 1.1189 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.1426.
For Monday:
•    We see a downside bias for 1.0950; break here aims for 1.0910, then 1.0870 maybe towards 1.0823/21.
•    But above 1.1024 opens risk up to 1.1060, maybe 1.1084.

Daily EURUSD Chart


A sell off on Friday after a probe above 1.3275 resistance, but a plunge back lower from ahead of next barrier at 1.3315, to push down through minor trend line and chart support at 1.3155/30, to shift the bias back to the downside into Monday.
Furthermore, the aggressive break lower in early July through, long-term chart support at 1.3045, psychological/ option level at 1.3000 and to probe long-term retrace support at 1.2797 reinforced the Brexit plunge lower on Friday 24th June, to leave the intermediate-term risks still lower.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
•    We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2791.
•    Below here targets 1.2565, 1.2000 and 1.1880 (risk to 1.1000 and 1.0520?!?!)
What Changes This? Above 1.4635 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.5019.
For Monday:
•    We see a downside bias for 1.3061 and 1.3047; break here aims for 1.3000 and 1.2970.
•    But above 1.3193 opens risk up to 1.3291 and 1.3315.

Daily GBPUSD Chart


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