EURUSD Bases, With Upside Bias; But GBPUSD Bearish Threats Intact, Despite Bounce

A surging rally for EURUSD in the wake of the ECB Meeting on Thursday, with a rate cut and expansion of the bond-buying program, with traders left wanting more! The jump in EURUSD close to 1.1000 has created a technical base, to leave a broader range bias for year-end, but with an upside risk.

GBPUSD was taken higher by the Euro rally and to a lesser extent by comments from Yellen. Although Cable (GBPUSD) has further upside correction risk in th4e very near term, the bias for December remains for bearish pressures to reassert.


A modest dip Friday, to probe minor Thursday support, but to rebound from ahead of 1.0788, to leave a bull bias for Monday.

A surge from our 1.0520 support for a bullish outside pattern Thursday, above 1.0830 has signalled a shift to a broader range theme, neutralising the bear trend now into mid/ late December.

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.0952, 1.0981 and 1.1008; break here aims for 1.1025, 1.1053/72, maybe key 1.1096.
  • But below 1.0836 opens risk down to 1.0788.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1096 and 1.0520.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.1096 aims higher for 1.1395 and 1.1495.
  • Downside: Below 1.0520 sees risk lower for 1.0459 and 1.0206.

Daily EURUSD Chart



A resilient, high level consolidation Friday, after the strong Thursday rebound from the new 1.4894 setback low to probe above 1.5126/36/56 resistance, to leave an upside bias for Monday.

However, previous bear signals from Q4 to push down through 1.5105 and 1.5024, leave a still bearish theme for December.

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.5159; break here aims for 1.5198, maybe 1.5273.
  • But below 1.5077 opens risk down to 1.5021.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.5000 and 1.4856.
  • Below here targets 1.4701 and 1.4566.

What Changes This? Above 1.5509 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.5659.

Daily GBPUSD Chart


Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.