- The pan-European currency has produced strong gains against most G10 currencies over the past three weeks since ECB President Draghi indicated a potentially more hawkish tone in late June.
- This has produced significant technical gains through important longer-term resistance levels.
- Going into today’s ECB Meeting, the growing threat is for a July challenge to critical levels at 1.616 and 1.1714.
- Above 1.1714 would signal a still more bullish longer term outlook into August and potentially beyond.
EURUSD – Bullish threat
A dip lower on Wednesday to probe minor support at 1.1509, but whilst above 1.1473 we still see upside pressures from the Tuesday push through the 1.1490 peak, psychological/option target at 1.1500 and 1.1555, maintaining upside risks into Thursday’s ECB Meeting.
Moreover, we still see a bullish intermediate-term outlook into July.
l We see an upside bias for 1.1583 and a key peak at 1.1616; a break above here would target 1.1665 and maybe the critical 1.1714 level
l But below 1.1473 opens risk down to 1.1409.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l Whilst above 1.1107, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1366.
l Above here targets 1.1428/47, 1.1616 and 1.1714.
What Changes This? Below 1.1107 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0837.
4 Hour Chart