On Friday 1st May at 9.30 am BST (GMT+1) local time the Manufacturing PMI Data for the UK is released. Although we see a digestion theme for Friday, this could give impetus for either a further corrective setback or a re-energized bull trend.
GBPUSD Bull Theme Intact, But Digestion Bias
The push this week through 1.5371, 1.5398, 1.5425 and 1.5459 resistance levels to hit 1.5500 maintains a bullish theme into early May.
The corrective setback and consolidation Thursday is likely to extend into Friday (and the UK holiday on Monday), but the strong rally from mid-April through the 18th March peak at 1.5164 has set a more bullish tone for May.
For Today: We see a neutral tone between 1.5270/55 and 1.5492/5500 (with a rebound bias)
- Break above 1.5492/5500 aims for 1.5552/69, which we would look to try to cap.
- Break below 1.5270/55 aims for 1.5174, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We now see a more positive tone with the bullish threat through 1.5500.
- Above here targets 1.5552/69, 1.5620, 1.5786, 1.5826, 1.5879 and maybe 1.6000 into May.
What Changes This? Below 1.4911 eases bull risks; through 1.4854 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.4566.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is rising and has scope to go still higher this week.
2 Hour GBPUSD Chart
Daily GBPUSD Chart