The New Zealand and Australian Dollars has both suffered notable erosion versus the US Dollar over the past week (since mid-July) to question the intermediate-term bull trends.
However, whilst NZDUSD hold above .6960 and AUDUSD hold above .7403 , the technical bias is still to the upside through latter July and into August.
However, surrender of theses supports, would see an intermediate-term shift to broader, neutral, range trading environments.
NZDUSD
Again a negative tone Wednesday, to reject the Tuesday intraday bounce effort and again to reinforce the Friday push below .7176 and .7132 supports, to keep a downside threat Thursday.
However, the mid-July new cycle high posted above .7298 leaves the intermediate-term outlook for latter July still bullish (whilst above .6960).
For Thursday:
- We see a downside bias for .7006; break here aims for .7077/70 and key .6960! Break targets .6945/25 area.
- But above .7068 opens risk up to .7123/25, maybe .7154.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: A previous shift to an intermediate-term bullish tone above .7054.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 7298.
- Above here targets .7396/7413 and .7564.
What Changes This? Below .6960 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6676.7396/7413
Daily NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD
Another push lower Wednesday, below 7472 and .7467/66 to reinforce the Tuesday surrender of .7556 and .7518/10 supports and bearish outside Friday pattern, to leave further downside risk Thursday.
For Thursday:
- We see a downside bias for .7458; break here aims for key .7403.
- But above .7517 opens risk up to .7606.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The new recovery high in mid-July signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift above .7648.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7676 and .7719.
- Above here targets .7835/49/78 and .8000.
What Changes This? Below .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7284.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
