Although the US Dollar has been generally strong across major G10 currencies from early to mid-May, recent price action versus the Euro and GB Pound has reflected differing outlooks.
EURUSD pushed last week through a key support at 1.1213 to shift negate the underlying bull theme from late 2015 and to leave risks lower into late May
However, Cable (GBPUSD), has retained a bullish tone (despite a dip Friday), to leave upside pressures through month-end.
As probe below 1.1213 Thursday produced an intermediate service shift from a bullish to a neutral tone; the risk is now growing for a push through 1.1142 support, which sees a bearish switch.
The low level consolidation Friday, capped below minor resistance at 1.1255 also leaves the bias lower Monday.
- We see a downside bias through 1.1177; break here aims for critical 1.1142, maybe 1.1105/00.
- But above 1.1255 opens risk up to 1.1293.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1447 and 1.1142.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.1447 aims higher for 1.1714 and 1.1871.
- Downside: Below 1.1142 sees risk lower for 1.1055 and 1.0823/21.
Daily EURUSD Chart
A probe last week above firm resistances at 1.4531/44 and 1.4572/75 reinforced the intermediate term bullish view, but the setback Friday through 1.4525/20 support shifts the bias back to the downside for Monday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.4455/50; break here aims for 1.4399.
- But above 1.4586 opens risk up to 1.4664.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.4816.
- Above here targets 1.4945, 1.5000 and 1.5240.
What Changes This? Below 1.4297 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.4089.
Daily GBPUSD Chart
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