Despite initial US dollar weakness after the Wednesday 21st September FOMC meeting, a firm US dollar rebound was seen Friday.
The GB Pound and the New Zealand Dollar suffered losses against the US dollar on Friday, which indicated a more negative tone for GBPUSD and NZDUSD into late September.
A GBPUSD break below 1.2791 and /or a NZDUSD break below .7200 would signal more negative shifts.
A sell off on Friday to surrender 1.3025, 1.2944 and 1.2925 support, to reject the Wednesday-Thursday advance, shifting the bias to the downside on Monday.
For Monday/ Tuesday:
• We see a downside bias for 1.2864 and 1.2850; break here aims for the key multi-decade low at 1.2791.
• But above 1.3020 opens risk up to 1.3088.
On an intermediate-term outlook, we still see a broader range theme into mid-September.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see a range defined by 1.2791 and 1.3534.
Range Breakout Challenge
• Upside: Above 1.3534 aims higher for 1.3637 and 1.3899.
• Downside: Below 1.2791 sees risk lower for 1.2565, 1.2000 and 1.1880.
Daily GBPUSD Chart
A break below key trend line and neckline supports and also .7290, .7274, .7250 and .7231/23 chart supports on Friday, has indicated risks of a bigger picture shift to a neutral tone (below .7200) and leaves the bias for a push lower again Monday.
Risk has again increased for an intermediate-term shift from bullish to neutral, only signalled by a break below .7200.
For Monday/ Tuesday:
• We see a downside bias for .7200; break here aims for .7163.
• But above .7315 opens risk up to .7370.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
• Whilst above .7200 we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7396/7413.
• Above here targets .7516/64 and .7744.
What Changes This? Below .7200 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7084.
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
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