The US$ has attempted to rebound in February against some of the major global currencies (versus the Euro for example) and ease the negative themes evident in January.
However, USDCAD remains particulate negative after the January breakdown through 1.2996 indicated a bearish intermediate-term shift and an inability to sustain any decent bounce in February.
While USDJPY has tried to rebound in February, losses last week maintain a still bearish threat for then end of this month and into March.
However, only a push down below 111.32 would create an intermediate-term bearish shift.
An erratic tone most of last week, but capped below and setting back from ahead of 1.3144 resistance, leaving negative pressures from the earlier February correction lower (through support at 1.3070), keeping the risk to the downside Monday.
Furthermore, we still see negative pressures from the January sell-off through the key 1.2996 level, which set a bearish intermediate-term outlook.
- We see a downside bias for 1.3002/00; break here aims for 1.2965/55.
- But above 1.3144 opens risk up to 1.3212.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2759.
- Below here targets 1.2676/51 and 1.2457.
What Changes This? Above 1.3387 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3598.
1.3387 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3598.
Daily USDCAD Chart
A Shooting Star bearish candlestick Wednesday and sell off into the end of last week through 113.21/13 and 112.70 supports, sets the risks lower for Monday.
Furthermore, this activity has resumed the bigger picture threat into February for a push below 111.32 (which would see an intermediate-term bearish switch).
- We see a downside bias for 112.30/20; break here aims for 111.58.
- But above 113.50 opens risk up to 113.99/114.05.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 111.32 and 118.65.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Downside: Below 111.32 sees risk lower for 110.00/109.76 and 108.51.
- Upside: Above 118.65 aims higher for 120.00/10 and 121.69.
Daily USDJPY Chart