- The USDJPY and USDCAD currency pairs are exhibiting a mixed tone as the US Dollar has strengthen against most currencies into mid-June, but USDJPY has stayed in a short-term consolidation phase.
- This leaves USDJPY vulnerable to a renewal of bear forces, remaining in an intermediate-term bear trend into June
- The USDCAD FX rate, however, has rejected weakness seen in the first part of June (as US yields plunged), with the rebound into mid-month threatening to neutralise the intermediate-term bear bias with a break above key 1.3430/49.
USDJPY downside bias in consolidation
A setback Friday and a small rebound from 108.13 support, but we still see a negative bias from the late May/ early June plunge through notable support at 108.47 (from late January 2019), keeping the bias lower into Monday.
The May surrender of 109.66 set an intermediate-term bear trend
- We see a downside bias for 108.13 and 107.79/74; break here aims for 107.10.
- But above 108.80/93 opens risk up towards 109.59.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 107.74, 106.72/55 and 105.00/104.78
- What Changes This? Above the resistance gap at 109.92 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 110.67 is needed for a bull theme.
4 Hour Chart
USDCAD risks higher
A Friday surge through 1.3366 resistance to reject negative forces from the earlier June selloff and build on the bounce last week, to shift the risks higher for Monday.
The June plunge through 1.3270 set an intermediate-term bearish trend, BUT risk is now for a shift back to neutral above 1.3430/49.
- We see an upside bias for key 1.3430/49; break here aims for 1.3525.
- But below 1.3359 opens risk down to 1.3295.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3114/10, 1.3064 and 1.300
What Changes This? Above key 1.3430/49 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above 1.3565 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.
4 Hour Chart