- In our last look at AUDUSD and NZDUSD on 29th November we highlighted the ongoing intermediate-term bullish outlooks for the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar in the wake a more dovish tone by Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman.
- However, a broader shift to a “risk off” scenario across global asset classes in early December (highlighted by equity market selloffs) has seen setbacks for the “risk currencies” amongst the Majors, for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
- For AUDUSD, the intermediate-term bull trend has been neutralised, whilst the immediate risks for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD are skewed to the downside.
AUDUSD Intermediate-term bearish shift threat to key .7161
A Friday rebound failure from just above our .7240 initial resistance (from .7242), to sustain negative forces from the Tuesday-Thursday plunge through key .7197 support (and trend lines from October and November, to keep the bias lower Monday.
The early December plunge to probe below .7197 switched the intermediate-term view to a range theme (defined as .7394 to .7161), BUT with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bearish shift.
- We see a downside bias for .7191/85 and key .7161; break here quickly aims for .7149, maybe .7119.
- But above .7242 opens risk up to .7276 and .7301.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7394 to .7161.
- Upside Risks: Above .7394 sets a bull trend to aim for .7484, .7668, .7813 and maybe .8000.
- Downside Risks: Below .7161 sees a bear trend to target .7077, .7018/00 and .6827.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD Immediate bias still towards a correction lower
A negative consolidation Friday to probe the up trend line from late October, after Thursday’s push down through the .6886/85 support area and the early December setback from a new cycle high, to leaves the bias for a correction lower Monday.
The early November aggressive surge above .6618 set an intermediate-term bull trend.
- We see a downside bias for .6843; break here quickly aims for .6834, possibly towards .6790.
- But above .6930 opens risk up to .6969 and .6995/7000.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for be .7060.
- Higher targets would be .7437 and .7558.
- What Changes This? Below .6751 shifts the outlook from bullish to neutral and only through .6705/04 to a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart