A look ahead: the week in the forex markets

Chris Lee

With a new foreign exchange trading week now ready to kick-off, this article will take a look ahead to the events of the next few days.

The afternoon is where the hub of the action will be on Monday, with statistics from Markit being released for various economies around the world.

Canada’s Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, will be out at 2.30pm GMT. This will cover January.

The equivalent figure for the US will be out fifteen minutes later at 2.45pm GMT.

And at 3pm GMT, the ISM manufacturing PMI for January in the US will be released as well. This is expected to show a rise from 47.2, where it was last recorded, to 48.5.

Later on, there will be a speech from the President of the German Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann.

This is set to take place at 6.15pm GMT.

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to make its decision on interest rates.

It is widely expected that the Bank will hold rates at 0.75%, where they currently sit.

French budget information for December will be out at 7.45am GMT, so euro traders may want to mark this slot as one to watch.

The same goes for preliminary Italian consumer price index data for January, which is due out at 10am GMT.

This looks set to hold firm, however, at the previous position of 0.5%.

Overall European price index data for December will be out at 10am GMT. Year on year, this looks set to show a change from -1.4% to -0.7%.

Factory orders information for December will be out of New Zealand at 3pm GMT. This looks set to show a change from -0.7% to +1.1%.

New Zealand’s unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of the year will also be scrutinised by the markets on Tuesday. It looks set to hold firm, however, and show no change from its previous position of 4.2%.

On Wednesday, a speech from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia – Philip Lowe – is due to take place at 1.30am GMT.

Chin’a Caixin services PMI for January will be revealed at 1.45am GMT, with traders keen to see whether or not the ongoing coronavirus crisis has had any impact on the way the sector is performing.

Predictions, however, indicate a slight uptick – from 52.5 to 52.6 – may be on the cards.

European retail sales information for December is due out at 10am GMT. This looks set to show a change from 2.2% to 1.3% on a year on year basis.

On Thursday, meanwhile, jobless claims will be released in the US. Initial claims for the dates around January 31st will be out: this metric was last recorded at 216,000.

Continuing jobless claims for the previous week will be out in the same time slot. These were last recorded at 1,703,000.

And preliminary unit labour costs for the last quarter of 2019 will be out here as well. A sharp drop is expected, from 2.5% to 1.4%.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.

Chris Lee
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