Forex Market Neutral as Australian Rates Hit Record Lows

Camila Martinez
Reserve Bank of Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia looked set to hit a record after it reduced interest rates from 1.25% to 1% in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

The move, which was widely expected by analysts but which still represents a significant milestone for global monetary policy, did not actually cause the Australian dollar to particularly rise or fall.

While it rose 0.3% against the US dollar and reached $0.6983, this represented not much of an overall shift after it fell by almost an entire percentage point in the same pair on Monday.

The US dollar index, which monitors the greenback in comparison to six global currencies, held fairly firm at 96.790. Its next challenge will be to see whether Chinese and US leaders stick to their claims to hold talks aimed at ending their trade battle.

The development was tempered somewhat by the words of the Reserve Bank’s statement, which appeared to imply that it would not move further and cut rates even more as time goes on.

There’s a lot on the forex market economic calendar today and across the rest of the week.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak at 2.05pm GMT.

This will be followed by a vehicle sales release from the US, covering the month of June. This is expected to show a decline from 17,300,000 to 17,000,000.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, Australian trade balance data is due out at 1.30am GMT covering the month of May. This is expected to show a downward trend.

Jobless claims data will be out of the US at 12.30pm GMT, a day earlier than usual. Continuing claims for the dates around June 21st are expected to show a change from 1,688,000 to 1,675,000. Initial claims for the dates around June 28th are expected to move from 227,000 to 223,000.

On Thursday, North American markets are likely to be slow due to the US Independence Day holiday.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank’s Philip Lane, who is an Executive Board member, is due to speak at 7am GMT.

Regular speaker Luis De Guindos, who is the Vice President of the European Central Bank, will speak at 9.10am GMT.

Overall Japanese household spending data for May is due out at 11.30pm GMT. Year on year, this is expected to show a significant downward move from 1.3% to 1.6%.

On Friday, a preliminary leading economic index is due out of Japan at 5am GMT. This is expected to show a change from 95.9 to 95.7.

Nonfarm payrolls data for June is due out of the US at 12.30pm GMT. This is expected to show a change from 75,000 to 158,000.

The American unemployment rate for June is due at 12.30pm GMT. This is expected to hold firm at 3.6%.

Canadian net changes in employment for June are due out at this time too, and this measurement is expected to show a big shift from 27,700 to 8,000.

The overall Canadian unemployment rate, meanwhile, is due to show a rise from 5.4% to 5.6% in June when it is released slightly later at 2pm GMT.

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