Midweek update: forex market developments

David Hobart

Wednesday is here, which means the midpoint of another forex trading week has been reached.

Here’s what’s on the cards.

The main focus over the afternoon will be North America.

There are a wide range of economic data updates to come out of the US, including mortgage application figures for the dates around 29th November.

That particular figure is due to come out at 12pm GMT.

Purchasing managers’ index data for November will be out at 2:45pm GMT and is expected to show no change from its previous position of 51.6.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November will be out at 3pm GMT and is expected to show a slight change from 54.7 to 54.5.

A speech from Randal Keith Quarles, who sits on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, is expected at 3pm GMT.

This will coincide with the release of an interest rate decision out of Canada, which is due at 3pm GMT.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates firm at 1.75%.

As Thursday dawns, Australian trade balance data for October will be out at 12:30am GMT.

The Australian dollar is already highly sensitive to trade fluctuations – and the ongoing seeming inability of the US and China to strike a trade deal could further impact the AUD/USD pair.

Retail sales figures will also be out in this time slot.

It is expected that this will show a change from 0.2% to 0.3%.

A speech from Yutaka Harada, who serves on the board of the Bank of Japan, will occur at 1:30am GMT.

German factory orders data from the German Bundesbank will be out at 7am GMT.

This is due to show a drop from 1.3% to 0.3%.

A meeting of OPEC, or the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, will kick off at 10am GMT.

Europe-wide gross domestic product figures for Q3 of 2019 will be out at 10am GMT.

These are expected to show no change quarter on quarter from their previous position of 0.2%.

Year on year, they are largely expected to remain at 1.2%.

Timothy Lane, who serves as deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak at 1pm GMT.

This will be followed shortly afterwards by the latest round of jobless claims from the US.

Continuing jobless claims for the dates around 22nd November are forecast to show a rise from 1,640,000 to 1,650,000.

Initial jobless claims for the following week are expected to show a change from 213,000 to 215,000.

US factory orders data for October will be out at 3pm GMT.

Month on month, this is due to show a change from -0.6% to +0.3%.

A purchasing managers’ index from Ivey, covering November, will be out in Canada at 3pm GMT.

An Australian index covering the performance of construction in November will be released at 9:30pm GMT.

Finally, overall household spending figures for October will be out of Japan at 11:30pm GMT.

Year on year, this is due to show a change from 9.5% to -3%.

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David Hobart
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