US Data in Focus Tomorrow Ahead of Chinese News on Friday

Denise Jackson
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The remainder of the foreign exchange trading week looks set to be just as exciting as the first half, with many diverse economic calendar events scheduled in.

Tomorrow (Thursday) will begin with a range of events in Australia. At 1.10am GMT, there’ll be a speech from Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

There’ll also be an update on the amount of investment lending for homes given out during the month of May, which is expected to be released at 1.30am GMT.

The focus will shift increasingly to Europe as the morning continues. A German harmonised index of consumer prices for June will be out at 6am GMT, and this is forecast by analysts to show no year on year change from 1.3%.

There’ll be a meeting minutes release from the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee at 8.30am GMT, and a Financial Stability Report at 9.30am GMT.

The US will see the bulk of the action, however. Continuing jobless claims for the dates around June 28th will be out at 12.30pm GMT. These are expected to show a decline of just 100,000 or so. Initial jobless claims for the dates around July 5th will come out at the same time. These were last recorded at 221,000.

Consumer price index information, excluding food and energy, will also come out at 12.30pm GMT. This statistic is one that may swing the Federal Reserve one way or the other when it comes to making its interest rate decision at the end of the month.

However, those who are hoping for some concrete evidence in one direction or the other are likely to be disappointed. The year on year figure, covering June, is forecast to stay constant at 2%.

The remainder of the day will be taken up largely by US central bank action. The testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which is due at 2pm, will be a key event.

Speeches are also scheduled in for the day. John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will speak at 3.10pm GMT. Thomas I. Barkin, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will speak at 4.30pm GMT. While Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Ninth District Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis, is scheduled in to speak at 9pm GMT.

Friday, it is expected that China will be the centre of focus. Overall trade balance data will be out at 2am GMT, covering the month of June. This is predicted to show an increase of several billion. Year on year export data, in particular, will also show a change from 1.1% to -2%. Import data will also be interesting year on year. A change from -8.5% to -3% is expected.

Later in the day at 7am GMT, the amount of foreign direct investment in China for the year to date will be out. The last time this was announced, the year on year change was 6.8%.

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