AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends re-energized (but immediate bounce risk)

audusd chart

  • Our last AUDUSD and NZDUSD reports here on 1st October stressed the threat of a switch in the intermediate-term viewpoint from bearish to bullish
  • However, US Treasuries have sold off to new multi-year yield highs, in reaction to a perception of a possibly more hawkish Fed.
  • This has boosted the US Dollar against many of the major currencies, seen a selloff in riskier assets (such as equites) and also seen the pro-risk currencies, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars under downside pressure.
  • This has produced a breakdown in both AUDUSD and NZDUSD, to new cycle lows, reinforcing the intermediate-term bear trends.
  • However, right now, the very immediate bias is for a corrective rebound for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

 

AUDUSD Bear theme eased, upside correction bias

A Wednesday push above .7097 resistance, to build on the dip and a rebound Tuesday from just above the .7039 cycle low (from .7051), to further ease the immediate bear theme from the selloff to start Q4 through the prior cycle low at .7083, reinforcing a mini-base and keeping risks higher for Wednesday/ Thursday.

We see an intact, intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7130; break here aims for .7155, maybe towards .7175.
  • But below .7094 aims for .7051/39 and maybe opens risk down to the psychological/ option target at .7000.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .7315 we see a downside risk for .7000.

  • Lower targets would be .6825 and maybe towards .6500
  • What Changes This? Above .7315 shifts the intermediate-term view straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7130 .7155* .7175 .7203* .7238/41**
.7094 .7051/39 .7000** .6969 .6941

4 Hour AUD/USD Chart

 audusd chart 

NZDUSD Small base and upside correction theme

A Wednesday push above .6467 for a small Double Bottom and also above .6483/86 resistances, to build on Tuesday’s rebound from just above the new cycle low at .6421 (from .6424), to further ease the immediate bear threat (from last Thursday’s surrender of the important September cycle low at .6497), to keep the risks higher Wednesday.

We see a fully intact intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6497; break here aims for .6510 and opens risk up to .6532.
  • But below .6463 aims for .6424/21 and maybe opens risk down to .6403/00.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6699 we see a downside risk for .6347.

  • Lower targets would be .6195 and .6000.
  • What Changes This? Above .6699 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6497 .6510* .6532 .6554 .6579*
.6463 .6424/21** .6403/00 .6377 .6347***

4 Hour NZD/USD Chart

nzdusd chart

 

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