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AUDUSD stays bearish with NZDUSD in a range

AUDUSD Chart 2019-02-25

  • On 14th February we last reviewed the AUDUSD and NZDUSD Forex rates here and highlighted a bear tone for AUDUSD and neutral theme for NZDUSD.
  • These views remain unchanged.
  • The AUDUSD currency pair has been erratic, but the overriding theme has been a more negative consolidation tone, with the underlying trend still negative, with the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a dovish tone.
  • The NZDUSD still sits in a broader range, with recent changeable price activity reflecting mixed economic data and somewhat mixed messages from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

AUDUSD downside risks intact, despite bounce

A rebound Friday just above initial, modest resistance at .7122, but capped by the better impulse level at .7168, and whilst below here we still see immediate negative forces from Thursday’s plunge through the up trend line from early/mid-February and just below the .7077/70 support area, keeping the risks lower for Monday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .7067; break here quickly aims for the key swing low at .7050, then .7024, maybe even the .7000/6991 area.
  • But above .7168 opens risk up to .7207, maybe towards .7246.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7246 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7150 .7168* .7207** .7246** .7265*
.7067 .7050** .7024* .7000/6991* 6949*

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2019-02-25

NZDUSD risks stay lower

An initial push lower Friday through .6788 support to a new correction low at .6756, then a rebound to push above .6831 but stay capped by the better .6877 resistance, and whilst below here we still see immediate bear forces from Thursday’s significant selloff through .6810/05 for a short-term topping pattern, keeping the bias lower for Monday.

We see an intermediate-term range defined as .6716 to .6942.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6798 and .6756; break here aims for .6723.
  • But above .6877 opens risk up to .6893, maybe towards .6906/10.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6716 to .6942.

  • Upside Risks: Above.6942 sets a bull trend to aim for .6969, .7060 and .7437.
  • Downside Risks: Below .6716 sees a bear trend to target .6583, .6347 and .6195.

Resistance and Support:

.6854 .6877* .6893** .6906/10*** .6942***
.6798 .6756 .6723* .6716*** .6703**

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2019-02-25

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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