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EURUSD and GBPUSD directional risks shift

EURUSD Chart 2019-04-15

  • When last reviewing the EURUSD and GBPUSD currency pairs here on 4th April we highlighted a bear threat for EURUSD and a still positive outlook for GBPUSD.
  • Subsequently, the EURUSD FX pair has seen a firm rebound (after the aggressive selloff from mid-March into early April), for now rejecting the threat of an intermediate-term bearish shift (below 1.1175) and currently pointing to the upside.
  • In the wake of another Brexit extension, the GBPUSD Forex rate has been unable to re-energise to the upside and actually dipped lower, and although the intermediate-term bullish theme is still just intact (above 1.2947), it is under threat, with the immediate risks lower.

EURUSD

Risks stay higher

A firm advance Friday above 1.1295 resistance after Thursday’s setback then a rebound from 1.1248 (above the 1.1228 support) into the 1.1286/95 resistance zone, to aim higher for Monday.

We see a broader, intermediate-term range as 1.1448 to 1.1175.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.1324 and 1.1332/41; break here aims towards 1.1390.
  • But below 1.1280 opens risk down to 1.1248 and 1.1228.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1448 to 1.1175.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1448 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1509, 1.1570/1.1621, 1.1815/52 and 1.1996/1.2000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1175 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1324 1.1332/41* 1.1390** 1.1448** 1.1448**
1.1280 1.1248* 1.1228* 1.1205* 1.1175***

4 Hour Chart

EURUSD Chart 2019-04-15

GBPUSD

Bias stays back lower

A small rebound and then a failure Friday from just above our 1.3122/30 resistance area (from 1.3133) to leave a negative bias from Thursday’s push below modest 1.3053 support, to just keep risks back lower for Monday.

The aggressive, mid-March advance through the late February peak at 1.3350 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3028; break here aims for 1.2985 and 1.2976, maybe key 1.2947.
  • But above 1.3130/33 opens risk up to 1.3196.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3608 and 1.4000
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2947 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3130/33 1.3196** 1.3269** 1.3311/31* 1.3381**
1.3028 1.2985/76* 1.2947*** 1.2890 1.2830/25

4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD Chart 2019-04-15

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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