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NZDUSD and AUDUSD Bear Themes Intact During Consolidation

NZDUSD Chart 2018-07-19

  • In our 9th July report here we underlined NZDUSD and AUDUSD correction themes in relation to the intermediate-term bear trends
  • Subsequent negative consolidation activity, primarily driven by a broadly strong US Dollar has reinforced bigger NZDUSD and AUDUSD bearish pressures for latter July (and beyond).
  • For NZDUSD, whilst below .7060, we see risks lower into month-end and August.
  • AUDUSD stays intermediate-term bearish whilst contained by .7677 and short-term bearish with .7484 intact.

NZDUSD

Downside risks intact

A setback Wednesday through initial .6761 support and despite a rebound from .6740 we still see negative pressures from the selloff from this week from below .6858 resistance (from .6840), keeping the bias lower for Thursday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6740; break here aims for .6722 and maybe .6693.
  • But above .6819 aims at .6840 and opens risk up to .6858.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6676/64.

  • Lower targets would be .6500 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .7060 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6819 .6840* .6858** .6900 .6921**
.6740 .6722* .6693* .6676/64** .6647

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2018-07-19

AUDUSD

Still a bear bias

A significant selloff Wednesday through the .7359/58 support area, reinforcing Tuesday’s setback from just below our initial .7442 resistance and despite an intraday rebound from just above the .7337 support (from .7340) whilst below .7412, and despite a rebound we still see risk lower Thursday.

We see a re-energized intermediate-term bear trend whilst below .7677.

For Today:

  • Whilst below .7442 we see a downside bias for .7340/37, maybe then .7308, the cycle low.
  • But above .7442 opens risk up to .7484.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7677 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7678 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7442* .7484** .7566 .7597/00 .7623*
.7340/37* .7308/00* .7265 .7209 .7200

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2018-07-19

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