- When we last discussed NZDUSD and AUDUSD here we underscored upside recovery risks for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD, although the intermediate-term outlooks remained bearish.
- A shift from mid-August to more of a global “risk on” theme has seen equity and commodity markets recover and this environment has allowed for gains in both NZDUSD and AUDUSD.
- For NZDUSD, we would see the intermediate-term bear theme shifting straight to bullish above .6759/66.
- For AUDUSD, we would only see an intermediate-term bullish switch above .7484.
NZDUSD Upside threats intact
A resilient consolidation tone on Wednesday to sustain the upside forces from Tuesday’s advance to match the latter August recovery peak at .6721, PLUS the positive tone from the entire recovery rally from mid-August (off of .6541), to keep the bias higher into Thursday.
The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is growing for a shift straight to bullish above the .6759/66 area.
- We see an upside bias for .6721; break here aims for key .6759/66, maybe towards .6798.
- But below .6618 opens risk down to .6607/00, maybe .6567.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6759/66 we see a downside risk for .6500.
- Lower targets would be .6347, .6195 and .6000.
- What Changes This? Above .6759/66 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD Rebound bias
A notable setback through .7285 support on Wednesday, but then a form intraday rebound from above .7234 (off of .7272) to sustain the upside forces from the solid recovery Friday-Monday AND from the advance from mid-August, to keep the bias to the upside Thursday.
The latter August rally through .7321 neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend to shift the intermediate-term outlook to a range theme, defined as .7199 and .7484 (but with the bias skewed towards an intermediate-term bullish shift).
- We see an upside bias for .7315; break here aims for .7362, maybe .7382.
- But below .7272 opens risk down to .7234.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7199 and .7484.
- Upside Risks: Above .7484 sets a bull trend to aim for .7677 and .8000.
- Downside Risks: Below .7199 sees a bear trend to target .7155/41 and .7000.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart