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USDCAD re-energized intermediate-term bull trend; USDJPY in a range

usdcad chart

  • An erratic tone for global asset classes switching between risk on and risk off environments since mid-June, but within this erratic phase the US Dollar has generally stay solid and seen gains against the major G10 currencies.
  • For USDJPY we still see an intermediate-term neutral, tone, but still with threat of an intermediate-term switch to bullish, signalled above 111.08.

USDCAD Downside correction bias

Initially a strong extension higher Friday as expected above 1.3347 resistance, but then a significant intraday setback from 1.3373 for a Shooting Star negative candlestick, for now switching the bias lower Monday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3255; break here aims for 1.3205 and maybe towards 1.3157.
  • But above 1.3325/30 opens risk up to 1.3377, maybe 1.3391.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3794.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2945 shifts the outlook to neutral; below 1.2725 sees a switch to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.3325/30 1.3377 1.3391 1.3444 1.3500*
1.3255 1.3205* 1.3157** 1.3120 1.3082*

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 

usdcad chart 

USDJPY Holding onto a rebound bias

A Friday consolidation still holding above 109.67 support, and whilst above here we still see a positive tone from Thursday’s initial rally through 110.60 and to prod 110.75 resistance, keeping the bias back higher Monday.

The early June push through 109.83 shifted the intermediate-term view from bearish back to a range theme (111.08 to 108.08), BUT with skewed risk to the upside.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 110.33; break here aims for 110.76, maybe 110.90.
  • But below 109.67 quickly opens risk down to 109.53/42, maybe then for 109.17/14

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.08 to 108.08.

  • Upside Risks: Above 111.08 sets a bull trend to aim for 111.40/48, 113.39/55 and 114.73.
  • Downside Risks: Below 108.08 sees a bear trend to target 106.85/59, 105.63 and 104.54.

Resistance and Support:

110.33 110.76* 110.90** 111.08*** 111.40/48**
109.67* 109.53/42** 109.17/14** 108.70 108.37/32

Hour USDJPY Chart

 

usdjpy chart

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