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USDJPY stays bullish; USDCAD holding onto the upside bias

USDCAD Chart 2018-07-25

  • The US$ has shifted to a more erratic tone into latter July from a more positive tone earlier in the month, being buffeted by global trade war concerns, rising yields, jawboning from Trump and a broader “risk on” move to US (and global) equity markets.
  • When we last looked at USDJPY here on 16th July, we highlighted the ongoing intermediate-term bull trend, which remains very much intact during the current correction phase, whilst holding above 110.28/25.
  • With respect to the USDCAD currency rate, the market did produce a solid rebound after the early July corrective setback, but latter July setback has again eased the intermediate-term bullish trend, but we only see a more negative shift below 1.3063/61.

USDJPY

Immediate rebound bias intact above 110.74/68

A Tuesday rebound stall back from 111.54 resistance, but whilst holding above the 110.74/68 support area from mid-July and this week, we still see the risks back to the topside for Wednesday.

The early July push above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see a rebound bias higher for 111.54 and 111.85/90; break here aims for 112.55/60.
  • But below 110.74/68 opens risk down to key 110.28/25.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.39/55.

  • Higher targets would be 114.73, 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.
  • What Changes This? Below 110.25 shifts the outlook back to neutral; only through 109.35 signals for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.54 111.85/90 112.55/60 113.14/18* 113.39**
110.74/68** 110.28/25*** 109.95* 109.65* 109.35***

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY Chart 2018-07-25

USDCAD

Positive theme still trying to resume

A dip Tuesday after Monday’s rebound effort from above 1.3105 support (from 1.3118), but we still see a positive tone, attempting to resume recent bull forces from early July, keeping the bias back higher Wednesday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT we see growing risk for an intermediate-term shift to neutral below 1.2945.

For Today:

  • Whilst above 1.3110/05 we see an upside bias for 1.3230/33; break here aims for 1.3290 and then 1.3302.
  • But below 1.3110/05 opens risk down to 1.3063/61, maybe 1.3025.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3794.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3061 shifts the outlook bullish straight to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.3230/33 1.3290/3302 1.3351* 1.3382/86** 1.3437
1.3110/05* 1.3063/61*** 1.3025 1.3000 1.2945

4 Hour Chart

USDCAD Chart 2018-07-25

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