Weekly Forex Market Followup (December 10th – December 14th 2012)

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of December 10th through December 14th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, December 9th

  • 1:30am CNY CPI 2.0%, as expected.

Monday, December 10th

  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance 19.6B versus 26.7B expected.
  • 5:15pm GBP BOE Governor King Said that, “You can see, month by month, the addition to the number of countries who feel that active exchange rate management, always to push their exchange rate down, is growing, my concern is that in 2013, what we will see is the growth of actively managed exchange rates as an alternative to the use of domestic monetary policy”. The currency rose.

Tuesday, December 11th

  • 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 6.9 versus -11.4 expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.2B versus -1.2B expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Trade Balance -42.2B versus -42.4B expected. The currency fell.

Wednesday, December 12th

  • 4:30am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that, “If the incentive to borrow is powerful and persistent enough, people will find a way to do it, even if that means the associated activity migrating beyond the regulatory perimeter. So in the new-found, or perhaps re-learned, enthusiasm for such tools, let us be realists.” The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -3.0K versus 5.1K expected. The currency rose.
  • 5:30pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, “To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.” The currency fell.
  • 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections noted that, “Appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices.”
  • 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference noted that, “While the economy appears to be on a path of moderate recovery, it isn’t growing fast enough to make significant progress reducing the unemployment rate. Fewer than half of the 8 million jobs lost in the recession have been restored.”

Thursday, December 13th

  • 8:30am CHF Libor Rate <0.25%, as expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment noted that, “The monetary policy strategy in force at the National Bank since 2000 consists of the following three elements: a definition of price stability, a medium-term inflation forecast and – at operational level – a target range for a reference interest rate, the three-month Swiss franc Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate).”
  • 8:30am CHF SNB Press Conference noted that, “Due to the still exceptionally low interest rates, there is, however, a considerable risk that these imbalances (in mortgage and real estate markets) continue to build up, and the risk of an abrupt correction over the medium term keeps increasing.”
  • 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.0% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD PPI -0.8% versus -0.4% expected.
  • 1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.3% versus 0.4% expected.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 343K versus 370K expected.

Friday, December 14th

  • 1:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.9 versus last 50.5 expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 46.3 versus last 46.8 expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week


Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.2891 open to a 1.3132 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from an 82.54 open to an 83.51 close.


Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.6025 open to a 1.6137 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0484 open to a 1.0553 close.


Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.9865 open to a 0.9858 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.8328 open to a 0.8445 close.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.