Weekly Forex Market Followup (December 17th – December 21th 2012)

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of December 17th through December 21st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, December 16th

  • All Day JPY Lower House Elections. Liberal Democratic Party leader and Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that, “We have promised to pull Japan out of deflation and correct a strong yen. The situation is severe, but we need to do this.” The currency rose.

Monday, December 17th

  • 2:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “The SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism) will contribute to restoring confidence in the banking sector across the euro area. It will help to revive inter-bank lending and cross-border credit flows, with tangible effects for the real economy. And combined with possible direct recapitalisation of banks by the European Stability Mechanism and an envisaged single resolution mechanism, the SSM will go a long way towards breaking the vicious feedback loops between sovereigns and banks.” The currency fell.

Tuesday, December 18th

  • 12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “At the Board’s previous meeting, members had considered that further easing may be appropriate in the period ahead, but had decided to maintain the existing setting for the time being, in view of the slightly higher-than-expected September quarter CPI and somewhat better information about the world economy. ” The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP CPI 2.7% versus 2.6% expected. The currency rose.
  • 9:45pm NZD Current Account -4.42B versus -4.28B expected. The currency rose.

Wednesday, December 19th

  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 102.4 versus 101.9 expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes vote 0-0-9, as expected. The minutes noted that, “Most members agreed that developments on the month had done little to alter the balance of arguments between maintaining and increasing the size of the monetary stimulus. Growth remained subdued. The impact of the most recent round of asset purchases was still to be fully felt.” The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.90M versus 0.87M expected. The currency fell overall.
  • 9:45pm NZD GDP 0.2% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.

Thursday, December 20th

  • 12:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 22.7 versus 26.4 expected. The currency fell.
  • 4:01am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “The Bank decided to increase the total size of the Asset Purchase Program by about 10 trillion yen, from about 91 trillion yen to about 101 trillion yen. The increase in the size of the program corresponds with the size of additional purchases of treasury discount bills (T-Bills) by about 5 trillion yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by about 5 trillion yen.” The currency fell.
  • 4:01am JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10%, as expected.
  • 7:41am JPY BOJ Press Conference BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said that, “At the next policy meeting, we will examine whether there is room to review the figures we define as medium- to long-term price stability … In the process, we need to ensure that policy flexibility is maintained. We also need to take into account how best to maintain financial system stability.”
  • 9:30am GBP Retail Sales 0.0% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 0.5% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 361K versus 350K expected. The currency fell overall.
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.04M versus 4.85M expected.
  • 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 8.1 versus -1.8 expected.

Friday, December 21st

  • 9:30am GBP Current Account -12.8B versus -13.7B expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 15.3B versus 14.8B expected.
  • 1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD GDP 0.1%, as expected.
  • 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 1.6% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell overall.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.3183 open to a 1.3174 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Unchanged from an 84.16 open to an 84.16 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.6176 open to a 1.6170 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0556 open to a 1.0416 close.


Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9854 open to a 0.9943 close.


Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.8465 open to a 0.8239 close.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.