AUDUSD and NZDUSD Downside Risks Intact

Technical Analysis

Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars maintain near term downside biases into latter May, with AUDUSD very much defined by a down trend.

NZDUSD, however, retains a negative bias within a broader range, but with growing risk for a more bearish shift, seen through .6664.

Read more technical analysis


A Wednesday bounce was capped by minor resistance at .7223 (back from .7219) to reinforce the Tuesday push to a new bear move low through modest .7160 support and the Monday failure from just above .7249 resistance (from .7260), to keep the bias back lower Thursday.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7141; break here aims for key support at .7106, then .7066/60
  • But above .7219/23 aims through .7249/60 for 7298.

The early May break below key .7411 signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7106.
  • Below here targets .7000, .6971, maybe .6825.

What Changes This? Above .7719 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7835.

Daily AUDUSD Chart



Despite a bounce to push above initial resistance at .6759, whilst below better barriers at .6807/01 we look for negative pressures from the early May Double Top pattern to return, to leave the bias lower Thursday.

Furthermore, the Double Top pattern below .6805 produced an intermediate-term shift to neutral, with ongoing risks for an intermediate-term shift to bearish below .6664.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .6727 and .6701; break targets key .6664.
  • But above .6801/07 aims for .6843/48.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7054 and .6664.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7054 aims higher for .7232 and .7396/7413.
  • Downside: Below .6664 sees risk lower for .6572/41, .6418 and .6343.

Daily NZDUSD Chart


Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.