AUDUSD Bearish Tone Reinforced as NZDUSD Aims Lower

NZDUSD Chart 2019-03-07

  • We last examined the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currency pair here on 24th February here and emphasized a bearish AUDUSD trend for and downside threats for NZDUSD.
  • These outlooks remain the same and have been reinforced by ongoing US Dollar strength, driven by a still robust US economy, but global slowdown concerns.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained a dovish outlook, whilst weakening Australian data (most notably GDP data this week) have seen expectations of rate cuts in 2019 increase, pushing the AUDUSD Forex rate still lower.
  • The NZDUSD remains within a broader range/ non-trend environment, but the global slowdown continues to weigh on the FX rate, with the risks skewed for a more bearish shift, signalled technically below .6716.

AUDUSD bear extension, risk of more to come

Again, a selloff on Wednesday for a better push below the .7067 dual lows and now also the February swing low at .7050, reinforcing Monday’s rebound failure from .7117/21 and downside forces from the selloff since the late February failure from a rebound high at .7199 (just below the .7207 spike peak), keeping risks lower for Thursday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is growing for a push to challenge .7246, above which would see the intermediate-term outlook switch straight to bullish.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias through .7017; below here quickly aims for maybe .7000/6991 and maybe towards .69949.
  • But above .7092 aims for .7117/21, which we would look to ty to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7246 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7092 .7117/21 .7166 .7199* .7207**
.7017 .7000/6991* .6949* 6916* 6873

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2019-03-07

NZDUSD still a bear threat to key .6716

A probe still lower Wednesday and then a small rebound but only after a prod through notable .6756 support (to .6751), reinforcing Tuesday’s selloff through the notable .6793/92 recent range support area and prior rebound failures from our .6833/53 resistance area, keeping the bias to the downside Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range defined as .6716 to .6942, BUT now with a growing threat for a downside challenge.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6751 break here aims for .6723 and maybe towards key .6716.
  • But above .6803 targets .6833/32 and quickly aims for .6853.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6716 to .6942.

  • Upside Risks: Above .6942 sets a bull trend to aim for .6969, .7060 and .7437.
  • Downside Risks: Below .6716 sees a bear trend to target .6583, .6347 and .6195.

Resistance and Support:

.6803* .6833/39* .6853* .6903/10*** .6942***
.6751 .6723* .6716*** .6703*** .6669*

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2019-03-07

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