Bearish Shift for USDCAD; USDJPY Stays Range Bound

usdcad chart

  • In our 28th January review of USDCAD and USDJPY here we underlined the threat for a USDCAD intermediate-term bearish shift and for USDJPY to stay within short- and intermediate-term ranges.
  • The USDCAD currency pair saw a selloff in late January after the Federal Reserve Meeting, through a key 1.3157 support level, which has seen the intermediate-term outlook shift to bearish (although the immediate risk is for a correction back higher)
  • The USDJPY Forex rate has continued to oscillate within a near-term consolidation environment within a broader, intermediate-term range (currently with the immediate bias to the upside).



USDCAD bias switches higher

Another rebound Wednesday as seen since early February, to push above the 1.3166 resistance level and also 1.3210, for now not only easing negative forces from the plunge after the late January Fed decision (through key 1.3157 support), but to switch risks higher for Thursday.

The late January plunge below 1.3157 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.3249; break here aims for 1.3286, possibly towards 1.3332.
  • But below 1.3168 aims for 1.3136 and opens risk down to 1.3064.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2912 and 1.2784.
  • What Changes This? Above 13375 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3210 1.3286** 1.3332 1.3375*** 1.3421
1.3168 1.3136 1.3064* 1.3052/44 1.3022/11

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart 

USDJPY Risks stay higher

Another resilient consolidation Wednesday above 109.40 support (as also seen on Tuesday) after Monday’s strong advance through key resistance at 109.99, to keep the risks higher into Thursday.

The probe above 108.90 set an intermediate-term range, seen as 111.41 to 107.10.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 110.16 and 110.48; break here aims for 110.94.
  • But below 109.40 opens risk down towards 108.85 and maybe even closer to 108.47.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.41 to 107.10.

  • Upside Risks: Above 111.41 sets a bull trend to aim for 71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 107.10 sees a bear trend to target 72/55, 104.78/56 and 100.00.

Resistance and Support:

110.16 110.48** 110.94 111.41*** 111.97
109.40 108.85* 108.47** 107.97* 107.74**

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart

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