Euro and Yen Shifting More Bullish Versus the US Dollar


  • Broad US Dollar weakness into the second half of August was reinforced on Friday during the Jackson Hole speeches by both Yellen and Draghi.
  • For EURUSD, the push to a new cycle high now aims at the psychological/ option target at 1.2000.
  • For USDJPY, the mid-August breach of 108.89 signals potential for further losses into September.

EURUSD – Bullish trend reinforced

As anticipated a bullish extension on Friday through the August peak at 1.1910, reinforcing the intermediate-term bullish outlook and also setting the risk higher again form Monday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.1941 to challenge the psychological/option target at 1.2000, maybe closer to 1.2063.
  • But below 1.1864 opens correction risk down towards 1.1772.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.2000, 1.2173, maybe closer to 1.2600/02.

What Changes This? Below 1.1661 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.1603.

4 Hour Chart


USDJPY – Bearish threat (but initial rebound risks)

A probe above our 109.83 resistance on Friday and despite the subsequent setback we still see a basing attempt and risk to the upside for Monday.

However, the mid-August probe below 108.89 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 109.83/84; break here aims for 11 0.37.
  • But below 108.81 opens risk down to 108.56 and 108.10.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 108.10.
  • Below here targets 107.19 and 105.99.

What Changes This? Above 111.05 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 114.50.

Daily Chart


Read more technical analyses here.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.