EURUSD and GBPUSD Directional Risks Shift

EURUSD Chart 2019-04-15

  • When last reviewing the EURUSD and GBPUSD currency pairs here on 4th April we highlighted a bear threat for EURUSD and a still positive outlook for GBPUSD.
  • Subsequently, the EURUSD FX pair has seen a firm rebound (after the aggressive selloff from mid-March into early April), for now rejecting the threat of an intermediate-term bearish shift (below 1.1175) and currently pointing to the upside.
  • In the wake of another Brexit extension, the GBPUSD Forex rate has been unable to re-energise to the upside and actually dipped lower, and although the intermediate-term bullish theme is still just intact (above 1.2947), it is under threat, with the immediate risks lower.


Risks stay higher

A firm advance Friday above 1.1295 resistance after Thursday’s setback then a rebound from 1.1248 (above the 1.1228 support) into the 1.1286/95 resistance zone, to aim higher for Monday.

We see a broader, intermediate-term range as 1.1448 to 1.1175.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.1324 and 1.1332/41; break here aims towards 1.1390.
  • But below 1.1280 opens risk down to 1.1248 and 1.1228.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1448 to 1.1175.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1448 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1509, 1.1570/1.1621, 1.1815/52 and 1.1996/1.2000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1175 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1324 1.1332/41* 1.1390** 1.1448** 1.1448**
1.1280 1.1248* 1.1228* 1.1205* 1.1175***

4 Hour Chart

EURUSD Chart 2019-04-15


Bias stays back lower

A small rebound and then a failure Friday from just above our 1.3122/30 resistance area (from 1.3133) to leave a negative bias from Thursday’s push below modest 1.3053 support, to just keep risks back lower for Monday.

The aggressive, mid-March advance through the late February peak at 1.3350 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3028; break here aims for 1.2985 and 1.2976, maybe key 1.2947.
  • But above 1.3130/33 opens risk up to 1.3196.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3608 and 1.4000
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2947 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3130/33 1.3196** 1.3269** 1.3311/31* 1.3381**
1.3028 1.2985/76* 1.2947*** 1.2890 1.2830/25

4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD Chart 2019-04-15

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