Mixed Outlook for the US Dollar


  • The US dollar has shifted to a slightly more negative corrective theme this week, but this has done little to damage the positive tone created from September.
  • Although the FOMC Meeting Minutes leave the Fed on a hawkish path with a likely rate hike into the end of 2017, the US Dollar unable to react positively on Wednesday.
  • For USDJPY, whilst holding above 111.96 we see short-term upside pressures, with an intermediate-term shift back to neutral requiring a push below 111.45.
  • USDCAD sees downside correction risks short-term, but we still see October threat to neutralise the intermediate-term bearish theme, but only above 1.2663.

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USDJPY – Rebound bias

We continue have a positive outlook after the FOMC Meeting Minutes, whilst holding above 111.96, with a rebound bias into Thursday.

However, surrender of 111.96, however, however would quickly see negative pressures resume.

The latter September push through 112.20 produced a bullish shift in the intermediate-term outlook and indicates upside risk into October.

For Today:

  • Whilst holding 111.96 we see an upside bias for 112.83; break here aims for 113.44, 113.58, then maybe 113.74.
  • But below 111.96 opens risk down to 111.45, maybe down to 111.10 and 110.75.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 114.50
  • Above here targets 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.

What Changes This? Below 109.53 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 107.29.

4 Hour USD JPY Chart


USDCAD – Downside bias

A negative tone Wednesday after Tuesday’s push down through support at 1.2500 and the up trend line from mid-September, through 1.2465 this morning already, keeping the risk lower Thursday.

However, we still see October threat for a shift in the intermediate-term bearish view to neutral, but only above 1.2663, And even as high as 1.2778, which would see an intermediate term bullish switch.

  • For Today:
  • We see a downside bias for 1.2413/12; break here aims towards 1.2332.
  • But above 1.2518 opens risk up to 1.2559.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • Whilst below 1.2663, we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to targets 1.2000 and 1.1919.

What Changes This? Above 1.2663 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2778.


4 Hour USD CAD Chart



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