NZDUSD Bullish Trend, but Downside Correction Bias into RBNZ Rate Statement

Technical Analysis


On Thursday 30th April at 9.00 am local time we get the Royal National Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision and Statement. This will likely have a significant impact on the NZDUSD exchange rate, in the wake of the US FOMC Meeting Statement earlier on Wednesday.

NZDUSD Hesitant, but Resilient

The probes above .7738/40 peaks reinforces our bigger picture view, that the strong April rebound has reinforced the previous Double Bottom for a stronger recovery phase into late April and for May.

However, the Wednesday setback points to a further correction theme on Thursday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7680; break here aims for .7657 and maybe .7614, which we would look to try to hold.
  • But above .7744 opens risk up to .7785; break here aims for the .7800, maybe closer to .7851.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Bigger picture, we see a more positive tone with the bullish threat to .7851.
  • Above here targets .7890 and maybe .7975/77.

What Changes This? Below .7534 eases bull risks; through .7422 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7391.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.