USDCAD and USDJPY Maintain Bullish Threats

Technical Analysis

The US currency has remained solid over the past week, against both the Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen, to leave the bias for further gains for the US$ against these currencies through late November.

Although USDCAD is still defined by a broader range environment into month-end, we still see risk skewed for a more bullish shift above the current 2015 cycle high.

In addition, US$ strength remains intact versus the Japanese Yen (despite a modest setback last week), with USDJPY still aiming higher for latter Q4.


Despite the previous setback from the 1.3371 peak, for a small top, the bounce from ahead of 1.3221 on Thursday-Friday sets a positive bias for Monday.

Although we still see a broader range into November, risk is still skewed for a bullish signal above 1.3457/62.

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3356; break here aims for 1.3369/71, maybe 1.3416
  • But below 1.3238 and 1.3242 opens risk down to 1.3221 and 1.3202.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3457/62 and 1.2828.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3457/62 aims higher for 1.3819 and 1.4000/4030.
  • Downside: Below 1.2828 sees risk lower for 1.2656 and 1.2304.

Daily USDCAD Chart



The previous surging rally above the 121.75/77 area has set a stronger base and bullish tone into November.

The bear setback Thursday from 123.60/75 resistance, but to hold 122.18 support, sets a neutral tone into Monday (bit with support more at risk).

For Monday: We see a neutral tone between 123.38 and 122.60 (with a negative bias).

  • Break above 123.38 aims for 123.60/75, which we would look to try to cap.
  • Break below 122.60 aims for 122.18, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We now see a more positive tone with the bullish threat to 124.16.
  • Above here targets 125.28 and 125.85.

What Changes This? Below 199.99 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 118.03.

Daily USDJPY Chart


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