USDCAD and USDJPY Negative Themes Reinforced

Technical Analysis

A US$ plunge across G10 currencies after the May US Employment report on Friday3rd June, which saw the Non-Farm Payroll data at 38,000, its lowest level for six years.

The has seen bearish intermediate-term themes for USDCAD and USDJPY reinforced and also see the bias lower for these spot FX rates into this week.

Read all technical analysis


A plunge lower Friday after a stall last week ahead of key resistance at 1.3218, to shift the bias lower for Monday.

This has for now eased the threat into June for a push above 1.3218 to neutralise the intermediate-term bearish theme.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2908; break here aims for 1.2891, 1.2836 and 1.2767.
  • But above 1.2974 opens risk up to 1.3055 and maybe 1.3096.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: A bearish shift in the intermediate-term outlook was signalled below 1.3360.

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2304.
  • Below here targets 1.2127 and 1.2000.

What Changes This? Above 1.3218 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3296.

Daily USDCAD Chart



Already breaking support on Thursday (109.07 and 108.70), but the plunge post-US Employment report Friday, to wipe out 108.20, 107.36 and 106.98 supports keeps a negative  bias for Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for the 106.42/22 area; break here aims for the cycle low at 105.51.
  • But above 106.93 opens risk up to 107.40/50, maybe towards 108.00.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: The previous plunge below 109.22 support shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

  • Whilst below 111.89 we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 105.51 and 105.20.
  • Below here aims for long term targets at 102.20, 100.75/71 and maybe even 100.00.

What Changes This? Above 111.89 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 113.80.

Daily USDJPY Chart


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