A US$ plunge across G10 currencies after the May US Employment report on Friday3rd June, which saw the Non-Farm Payroll data at 38,000, its lowest level for six years.
The has seen bearish intermediate-term themes for USDCAD and USDJPY reinforced and also see the bias lower for these spot FX rates into this week.
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A plunge lower Friday after a stall last week ahead of key resistance at 1.3218, to shift the bias lower for Monday.
This has for now eased the threat into June for a push above 1.3218 to neutralise the intermediate-term bearish theme.
For Monday:
- We see a downside bias for 1.2908; break here aims for 1.2891, 1.2836 and 1.2767.
- But above 1.2974 opens risk up to 1.3055 and maybe 1.3096.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: A bearish shift in the intermediate-term outlook was signalled below 1.3360.
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2304.
- Below here targets 1.2127 and 1.2000.
What Changes This? Above 1.3218 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3296.
Daily USDCAD Chart
Already breaking support on Thursday (109.07 and 108.70), but the plunge post-US Employment report Friday, to wipe out 108.20, 107.36 and 106.98 supports keeps a negative bias for Monday.
For Monday:
- We see a downside bias for the 106.42/22 area; break here aims for the cycle low at 105.51.
- But above 106.93 opens risk up to 107.40/50, maybe towards 108.00.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: The previous plunge below 109.22 support shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
- Whilst below 111.89 we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 105.51 and 105.20.
- Below here aims for long term targets at 102.20, 100.75/71 and maybe even 100.00.
What Changes This? Above 111.89 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 113.80.
Daily USDJPY Chart
