- On 28th February we previously looked at the USDCAD and USDJPY currency pairs here with a bearish outlook for USDCAD, but flagging upside risks for USDJPY.
- Since that last report, the US Dollar has strengthened against most major currencies, with global growth concerns leaving the US currency as a safe haven, particularly with the US economy still relatively strong.
- Alongside the US Dollar strength, the USDCAD Forex rate has also seen gains due to a more dovish tone from the Bank of Canada amid deteriorating Canadian economic data and a falling Oil price, with USDCAD pushing above 1.3375 for an intermediate-term, bullish technical shift.
- The USDJPY FX rate has pushed above a notable resistance level at 111.41, switching the intermediate-term view to bullish (although the immediate bias is lower).
USDCAD Upside risks, despite dip
A setback Friday just below initial, minor support at 1.3413/09, but whilst holding above the better 1.3351 level we see upside pressures intact from Wednesday’s bullish price action through 1.3375 key resistance after Tuesday’s push higher above the important 1.3340 swing resistance, to keep risks higher for Monday.
The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3469/74/88; break quickly aims for 1.3500, then maybe 1.3567.
- But below 1.3351 opens risk down to 1.3272, which we would look to try to hold.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.
- Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
- What Changes This? Below 1.3110 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3064 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USD/CAD Chart
USDJPY Immediate bias shifts lower
A Friday setback through 111.35 initial support to ease short-term, immediate upside pressures from the late February push through our key 111.41 level (up 112.14 last week), to switch risks lower into Monday.
The late February firm rally above key 111.41 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.
- We see a downside bias for 110.75 and 110.63; break here aims for 110.33/32.
- But above 111.70 opens risk up to 112.14.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.71.
- Higher targets would be 55 and 115.00
- What Changes This? Below 109.66 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 108.47 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USD/JPY Chart