USDCAD Bull Theme Questioned as USDJPY Looks to Neutralise a Bear Trend

usdcad chart

  • In our last look at USDCAD and USDJPY on 13th December highlighted a USDCAD intermediate-term bull trend and a range theme for USDJPY.
  • USDCAD has pushed still higher into year-end, BUT the selloff in early 2019 has already questioned the bullish trend.
  • The USDJPY “flash crash” reinforced an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT the subsequent rebound is threatening to shift the intermediate-term outlook to neutral.


USDCAD Downside risk reinforced through key Employment reports

A Friday plunge lower in the wake of the US and Canadian Employment reports through numerous supports as low as the 1.3388/70 area, to reinforce Thursday’s selloff through notable platform support at 1.3563, fully rejecting upside pressures from the strong advance to end 2018 (to 1.3665), to keep the bias lower Monday.

The early November push above 1.3226 set an intermediate-term bull tone, BUT risk is now for an intermediate-term shift to neutral below 1.3318 and to maybe bearish below 1.3157.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for key 1.3318; break here aims for 1.3290 and 1.3249, maybe 1.3199.
  • But above 1.3442 opens risk up to 1.3488/96 and maybe 1.3567.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3777.

  • Higher target would 1.4000/17.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3157 shifts the outlook back to neutral and then through 1.3123 would quickly see a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3421 1.3488/96** 1.3567 1.3618* 1.3665/66**
1.3442* 1.3411** 1.3388/70 1.3318* 1.3290*

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 usdcad chart

USDJPY Further flash crash rebound leaves risks to the upside

A firm advance Friday above 108.00 resistance, to build on Thursday’s rebound after the extremely forceful “flash crash” selloff late Wednesday, to keep risks higher into Monday.

The plunge through 112.21/20 through the latter December FOMC Meeting set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT we see risk above 108.90 which would neutralise the intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for through 108.59 for key 108.90; break here aims for 109.46.
  • But below 108.04 opens risk down to 107.48, maybe 107.10.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 106.72/55.

  • Lower targets would be 78/56 and 100.00.
  • What Changes This? Above 108.90 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and only above 111.41 to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

108.59 108.90**** 109.46* 109.99 110.48**
108.04* 107.48** 107.10** 106.72/55** 105.65

Daily USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart 

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